HOW THE SITUATION IN BELARUS CAN AFFECT THE FOOD MARKET OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus combine close trade and economic relations, in particular, many Belarusian food products enjoy the confidence of Russians. Entire branches of Belarusian agricultural production are focused on supplies to Russia. For example, many Russians love and appreciate Belarusian-made milk and butter, as well as sausages and cheeses. First of all, they attract buyers of quality, naturalness and affordable price (in comparison with Finnish counterparts, for example).

The political situation in the Republic of Belarus after the presidential election has developed in such a way that the work of many enterprises is in danger of stopping due to strikes by labor collectives. At the same time, many experts expect sanctions pressure on the Republic of Belarus, which in turn can affect agricultural producers, since the feed and seed stock in many farms is imported.

According to Konstantin Korneev, Executive Director of Rincon Management, there are no significant interruptions in the supply of Belarusian products to Russia, but there is a possibility that they may arise in the future. "If the poultry market is saturated, and in case of interruptions in supplies, Russia will be able to replace the retired volume with its own production, then there is still not enough beef," he comments. "Belarusian beef is mainly being processed for the production of sausage products and semi-finished products, so our meat processors can feel a shortage of raw materials." Now many distribution companies are already trying to reinsert themselves and are negotiating with beef suppliers from other regions, Korneev knows.

The situation with milk is commented by the general director of the National Union of Milk Producers (Soyuzmoloko) Artem Belov: "For Belarusian producers, this is a significant income item. Enterprises there continue to produce, process and sell milk every day, Belarusian suppliers have long-standing partnerships with Russian buyers, he notes." Accordingly, we do not expect supplies to Russia will stop due to the political situation in Belarus. "

Thus, in the short-term forecast, the shortage of Belarusian food products on the Russian market is not expected. The long-term forecast depends on how the situation in the Republic of Belarus develops.