"Thanks to countersanctions import from the traditional countries in which we bought food products, from $19 billion to about $6 billion, slightly even less, this year fell off", - General director of IKAR Dmitry Rylko declared, speaking at the forum "Agrobusiness in Russia" organized by Adam Smith's Institute.
According to him, Russia continues to import some products and alcoholic beverages from these countries. "Nobody cancelled import of a number of elite products which can be found in the Moscow shops", - he noted.
In 2014 import of food products from the countries concerning which Russia made food embargo constituted $14,4 billion, in 2015 it was reduced to $6,5 billion.
Import of food products from the countries of Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) remains stable, following the results of 2016 it is expected at the level of $3,3 billion.
General import of food products on the Russian market, according to IKAR, in 2016 will constitute about $23,5 billion (in 2013 - $43,2 billion). Rates of fall of import accelerate, as a result the institute corrected the assessment (a week ago it constituted $24,5 billion), D. Rylko told.
Export of food products from Russia, according to the forecast of IKAR, in 2016 will constitute $16,7 billion. Serious impact on its dynamics is exerted by fall of the prices of agricultural goods. "In weight physical we take out much more, than to previous years, but at cost it is rather modest", - D. Rylko noted.
According to IKAR estimation, import and export of food products can be the same level even in three-four years when preserving the current dynamics of deliveries. "We quickly enough moved in recent years towards zero balance if it goes the same in the next years, then somewhere in three-four years it would be possible to say that export is equal to import what it was absolutely impossible to believe several years ago in" - D. Rylko told.
On August 7, 2014 Russia declared embargo on import of food products from the USA, the EU, Australia, Norway and Canada. Under a prohibition appeared meat and meat products, fish, fish products, milk and dairy products, vegetables and fruit. Since August 13, 2015 the list of these countries included Albania which joined the anti-Russian sanctions, Montenegro, Iceland, Liechtenstein, since January 1, 2016 - Ukraine.
As D. Rylko considers, the effect of import substitution as drivers of growth of the Russian agricultural industry is close to exhaustion. "The effect of import substitution too considerably by the end of 2016 is won back, but the market doesn't notice it so far, it is seen by analysts and that not everything, - he told. - Why it isn't noticed - because following the results of 2016 we are expected by a serious surplus of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in agricultural industry, we expect that it will constitute more than 4%".